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Question | 2024/07/06 00:18 |
Vivinavi Los Angelesアメリカの今後は?
- #1
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- みらい77777
- 2004/06/27 11:23
いろいろな意味で今後のアメリカはどうなると思いますか? 一番気になるのは財政面ですが。 このままアメリカは財政赤字を膨らませるのか?とくにたちの悪い外国からの借金。 もちろん日本のお金がアメリカに吸い取られてるわけですが、日米関係を取り持つためには仕方のないことなのかもしれません。しかしアメリカは今後も今のようなポジションで居つづけれるでしょうか? 日本はアメリカなしの将来をもてるでしょうか。
- #2
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- マウス三世
- 2004/06/29 (Tue) 16:28
- Report
イラクの主権移譲の前倒し、それに、米兵の人質殺害、緊迫するイスラエル、パレスチナ問題、さらには華氏911の公開。ひょっとすると、大統領選挙は波乱が起きるかもしれませんね。ケリーにはもっとがんばってもらいたいです。
ところで、ケリー陣営には、ジョージ・ソロスも協力しているらしいのですが、彼は財政赤字を縮小するプランでもあるのでしょうか?手っ取り早く、人民元を切り上げして、対中国の貿易赤字を減らすわけにもいかないでしょうしね。やはり、内需拡大と失業率をどうにかしないと、財政赤字は一向に減らないと思います。
日本からの借金というのが、よく取り上げられますが、それによって、アメリカは膨大な利子を日本に払わなければなりませんし、日本にとっても、円安ドル高になったくれた方が、企業的に見ても好ましい状況なので、なんとも言えませんね。
日本は、日米同盟無しの独立は今のところできないと思います。日本がアメリカ以外に同盟国を見つけないと、アメリカとの同盟破棄はありえませんし、同盟国が見つかるとも思えません。同盟を維持しながら、アメリカに物が言えるようになれればいいなぁと望んでいます。独断ですが、日仏同盟なんかできれば理想的だと思います。
とにかく、アメリカの経済はこれから、対中国向けの輸出である程度回復すると思います。中国は、自動車の関税を25%まで下げるようです。問題なのは地政学リスクでしょう。
- #3
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- sed
- 2004/06/29 (Tue) 17:38
- Report
なんかストールしそうなエンジンみたい。止まりかけているからといってガスを入れるとプラグがカブって余計ダメになる。
米国の金利が常に一歩上を行きながら、日米両者の景気を回復させることができれば理想的で、米国債を買いつづけるのも悪くはないでしょう。でもリスクは拡大する一方です。もし、日本の景気が先に回復して円高+金利上昇....気付いたときには巨額の含み損でにっちもさっちも行かないなんてことに....
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